Why narrow victory margins may decide Rajasthan's fate in 2023 polls 

As Rajasthan gears up for Assembly elections, political analysts are focusing on a pivotal determinant of electoral success: the margin of victory in closely contested races. In a state renowned for its dynamic political landscape and swift shifts in fortunes, a thorough examination of past election data reveals that seats won with a margin of less than five per cent could significantly influence the contest's outcome.

Close victory margins: A window into electoral dynamics

In electoral politics, the margin of victory often barometer a candidate's popularity and the electorate's sentiments. A narrow victory margin of less than five per cent underscores the fiercely contested nature of a seat where each vote carries weight, and a shift in allegiance can tip the balance.

Data compiled and analysed by India Today's Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) offers insights into the last Assembly elections in Rajasthan, revealing intriguing patterns in close victory margins:

• All parties: Aggregated data indicates that almost a third of seats were won by a slim margin of less than five per cent. This implies that in nearly 30 per cent of constituencies, the winning candidate secured victory by a minimal difference in votes compared to their closest rival. This statistic is almost ten percentage points higher than the 2013 assembly poll, underscoring the importance of closely contested seats in Rajasthan's political landscape.
• BJP: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a dominant player in the state, clinched victory in 14 per cent (28) seats with a narrow margin in the 2018 assembly poll. This indicates the party's ability to retain its support base even in challenging scenarios.
• Congress: The Indian National Congress (INC) managed to secure 11 per cent of its wins by a slim margin in 2018, showcasing the party's resilience in maintaining dedicated voter segments.
• Others: Smaller parties and independents emerged victorious in 4.5 per cent of seats by a close margin. This underscores the role of regional parties in influencing the state's political dynamics.

Historical trend of victory margin

The presence of seats won within lower margin ranges (less than five per cent) for both parties in different years indicates closely fought electoral battles. Notable fluctuations in the percentage of seats won by close margins over the years highlight the varying competitiveness of elections in Rajasthan.

Elections in 2003 and 2008 stand out as periods of particularly intense competition, with over 38 and 41.5 per cent of seats won by narrow margins, respectively. Similarly, elections in 1993 and 2018 also experienced high percentages of closely contested seats, signifying fierce competition in those years.

Stability vs volatility

The heatmap for Congress reveals both stability and volatility. Some years show consistent margins (evidenced by a concentrated colour in a specific margin range), while other years exhibit wins spanning multiple margin ranges, indicating diverse contest outcomes. The BJP's performance was spread across different margin ranges, especially in recent years, implying variability in their electoral victories.

Emerging trends

In recent years, the lighter shades in the higher margin ranges for the BJP and Congress indicate fewer landslide victories. This might suggest that voter bases are becoming more fragmented or that regional and local issues wield greater influence over electoral outcomes.

The timeframe from 1985 to 2018 encompasses significant political shifts in Rajasthan. Power has alternated between Congress and the BJP, with each party experiencing periods of dominance.

The jitter plot above depicts a diverse landscape of victory margins. Each year, the spread of individual dots represents margin ranges across constituencies. While average lines provide an aggregated view, individual points (jitters) remind us that the state's political landscape is diverse. Some constituencies feature razor-thin margins, indicating intense political battles, while others have clear winners.

Upcoming assembly election: Close margins in focus

As Rajasthan prepares for another round of Assembly elections, historical data on close victory margins becomes paramount for political strategists and candidate selection. The implications of past victories extend beyond statistics — they offer insights into voter sentiments and preferences that could sway the 2023 balance.

Political observers speculate that parties will prioritise campaigns in these seats, recognising the potential for a slight vote swing to impact the outcome significantly. Door-to-door canvassing, targeted outreach, and issue-centric campaigning are expected to take centre stage in constituencies with a history of narrow victories.

Interpreting the numbers

Several considerations are vital when interpreting the data:

• Competitive constituencies: High percentage of seats won by thin margins across all parties underscore Rajasthan's competitive politics, suggesting a significant portion of the electorate is closely divided.
• Strategic targeting: Parties might focus on constituencies with a history of close victories, tailoring campaign strategies and targeting specific voter segments.
• Voter fluidity: Data suggests fluid voter sentiments, leading to outcomes influenced by minor preference shifts. Addressing diverse concerns is crucial.
• Voter turnout significance: In close-margin seats, even a slight change in voter turnout can profoundly impact outcomes. Parties may emphasise get-out-the-vote initiatives.
• Local factors' influence: Close-margin victories often reflect local issues, candidate personalities, and regional dynamics that sway voters significantly.

A tale of two elections

Rajasthan's poll outcomes in 2013 and 2018 diverged noticeably. Examining election results unveils a dynamic shift, continuity, and competition landscape.

In 2013, the BJP's saffron dominance, represented in vibrant orange, spanned significant areas of the state. By 2018, many of these regions transitioned to shades of blue, signalling a swing towards the INC.

The 2018 map, bathed in varying shades of blue, indicates the Congress' resurgence. Key regions, especially in the north and central parts of Rajasthan, tilted towards the Congress, reflecting changing voter sentiments.

Persistence of 'Others' and BSP's steady hold

Amid the BJP and Congress rivalry, a consistent grey shade is evident on both maps, representing constituencies won by smaller parties or independents. Their continued presence, particularly in 2018, underscores the importance of regional issues and local political dynamics. The Bahujan Samaj Party's (BSP) subtle yet steady presence is represented in dark blue, while the emergence of the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), marked in yellow, is a testament to the evolving state political landscape.

Seat and vote share dynamics

The intricate interplay between seat and vote shares defines Rajasthan's electoral landscape. Congress and BJP, as major players, have experienced intriguing shifts in their shares, often intertwined with close victory margins.

Historical data reveals a roller-coaster ride of seat share fluctuations for Congress. In 1998, Congress secured over 76 per cent seat share, a record 153 seats in the assembly. From 2003 to 2008, the party experienced a significant decline, followed by a revival in 2008. However, momentum wavered in 2013 — although the party returned in 2018 with nearly half the seats.

The BJP's seat share trajectory contrasts this, surging remarkably to around 60 per cent in 2003 and 82 per cent in 2013. However, the party's share declined to about 37 per cent in subsequent years leading up to 2018.

Vote-share patterns mirror the seat-share dynamics for both parties. Congress and BJP experienced similar trends, with ups and downs in their respective shares, reflecting electoral shifts. The historical data underscores the significance of close victory margins in this intricate web of seat and vote share fluctuations.

These narrow wins often acted as decisive turning points, amplifying the impact of shifts in the seat and vote shares. With another round of polls at Rajasthan's doorsteps, these lessons from the past emphasise the necessity for parties to navigate the dynamic landscape with strategic precision.