The worry lines on India’s socio-political front

(NOTE: This is a reprint of an article that was published in the INDIA TODAY edition dated September 4, 2023)

In a country like India where growth is inextricably linked with the functioning of its various public institutions, perception plays a critical role. It is how narratives are built and public opinion shaped. From the proposed introduction of a Uniform Civil Code and the Hindenburg report against the Adani Group to broader themes like caste and gender equality, the India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) Survey, 2023 offers important insights into not just how Indians perceive key challenges before the country today, but also their collective aspirations and vision for the nation.

The overall findings paint a complex picture. For the first time, more than a third of the respondents (36.6 per cent) are not confident about the functioning of the four pillars of democracy—legislature, executive, judiciary and media. What is consistent, however, is the perception that more than any other arm, it’s the judiciary that plays the most important role in upholding democratic norms—though fewer people (27.8 per cent) hold that opinion today than those in January 2022 (34 per cent). The confidence in the media has eroded too, from 20.3 per cent to 12 per cent in the same period. Fewer people also feel free to express their views on politics and religion (45.6 per cent) this time than in August 2022 (49.8 per cent). That another 23.5 per cent say they feel free to express an opinion on politics but not on religion is a direct reflection of the rising polarisation. Finally, more people are worried about the state of the Indian democracy—almost half (49.8 per cent) of the respondents express apprehensions on the subject this MOTN, up from 42 per cent in January 2021.

The communal situation is another worry. Fewer respondents (41.4 per cent) in the current survey feel that communal harmony under the NDA government has improved than those in January 2021 (55 per cent); in fact, the share of those who feel it has deteriorated has increased from 22 per cent to 34.1 per cent in August 2023. A quarter (25.3 per cent) of the respondents feel that the Bharatiya Janata Party-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (BJP-RSS) combine is responsible for the deteriorating scenario, while 1.8 per cent and 1.7per cent blame religious fundamental groups and the media (both mainstream and social), respectively.

Perceptions about Muslims, India’s largest minority group, are also shifting. A vast majority of the respondents—69.1 per cent—feel Muslims in India are safe. The view that Muslim men are indulging in ‘love jihad’ by marrying Hindu women has also waned slightly, from53.1 per cent in January 2023 to 44.6per cent now. Those who think the hijab should be banned number 49 per cent today, compared to 56.6 per cent in January 2023. Separately, while almost 30 per cent of respondents support inter-religious marriages, 41.5 per cent support it only conditionally, that is, if the religious identity is known to both parties. Over half of Christian respondents (55 per cent) and 40 per cent Sikhs support inter-religious marriages too. Those opposing it as a whole are on the decline, from 23.8 per cent of the respondents in January this year to 16.7 per cent in the latest survey.

As an extension of these subjects then, the proposal for a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) also seems to have become a point of debate. The code will cover areas like marriage, divorce, maintenance, inheritance, adoption and succession of property, and will imply that all sections of society, irrespective of their religion, will be subject to a uniform, common set of laws. Interestingly, the share of those who want a UCC has declined from 72.7 per cent in the MOTN poll of January 2022 to 61.9 per cent today, a drop that coincides with the growing public discussion around a UCC. The findings point to the need to conduct serious deliberations with all communities so that policymakers can understand their concerns better.

A large number of respondents have pointed to the weakening of cooperative federalism in India, especially in light of the frequent face-offs between the Arvind Kejriwal-led Delhi government and the Centre. The MOTN survey shows that while 32.9 per cent of the respondents blame the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)-led Centre for it, almost an equal share of people—31.2 per cent—think the constant run-ins are because of the Delhi government. However, broadly, a majority of the respondents (61 per cent) believe that governors in non-BJP-ruled states behave in a partisan manner; only 21.9 per cent disagree. In fact, 37 per cent of the respondents also accuse India’s poll watchdog, the Election Commission, of partisan conduct, though 49.5 per cent do believe it is fair.

Beyond politics, the survey also reflects the lopsided nature of India’s socioeconomic progress. Women’s safety tops the list of areas that need work, despite the plethora of laws and gender justice measures being put in place. Only 36 per cent of the respondents in August 2023 feel India has become safer for women, in contrast to almost 50 per cent a year ago. In fact, those who say it has become less safe have gone up to 46.4 per cent from 34.4 per cent during the same period.

On the caste front, there has been only a slight shift in views on the subject of reservation for economically weaker sections (EWS). Almost 56.5 per cent of the respondents in the latest MOTN survey think such quota should have economic status and not caste as its criterion. This is only a marginal drop from 57.3 per cent in January 2023. Even the share of those who say both criteria should be considered is on the decline—28.6 per cent today compared to 32.3 per cent in January this year. Also, the total share of people who support inter-caste marriages totally or even conditionally (that is, when the caste identities are known to both parties), has dropped from 76per cent in January this year to 72 per cent in the latest survey. Though what’s of note is that 40 per cent upper-caste Hindus say they support inter-caste marriages if the caste identities are known to both parties.

Meanwhile, a few distinct steps taken by the Centre in recent years have elicited varying responses. There writing of history books, for instance. The past can be interpreted innumerous ways, and it’s this fact that has divided opinions, with questions being raised about politics rather than a genuine academic need driving such changes. A majority of the respondents (54.7 per cent) think history books should be rewritten, while 30.8 per cent are opposed to the idea.

Next, it is the debate on freebies that seems to have divided respondents down the middle, with a little more than half (51.8 per cent) contending that the Centre and state governments must be more generous on that account.

On the vexatious issue of Jammu and Kashmir, 31.2 per cent of the respondents feel that the Union government should restore full statehood as well as Article 370 to bring normalcy to the region. What’s interesting is that while this number has seen a jump from 25 per cent in August 2021, the share of those who support restoring full statehood but without Article 370 has seen a sharp fall, from 41 per cent in August 2021 to 24.6 per cent two years on.

The report by the US-based firm Hindenburg Research, which alleged that the Adani Group indulged in “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud”, is another controversial subject. While 37.6 per cent of the respondents in this MOTN survey believe in the report’s findings, another 33.2 per cent are on the fence about it.

With the world having transformed rapidly over the past decade, there are a few subjects in particular that have entered the national discourse only recently and over which opinion is still evolving. For instance, the question of legalising same-sex marriages, on which the Supreme Court reserved its judgment in May this year, has seen great public interest over the past few months. While the central government has opposed the concept, the apex court has in the recent past passed several rulings in favour of the LGBTQ+ community, the most significant being the decriminalisation of same-sex relations in 2018. In the latest MOTN poll, 40.5 per cent of the respondents are opposed to legalising same-sex marriages in India, while 33.9 per cent are in favour of it. Notably though, 46 per cent of respondents aged between 18-24 years support same-sex marriages.

Data protection and privacy in the digital space are other emerging areas of concern. A whopping 68.4 per cent of the respondents in August 2023 are worried about their privacy, compared to 55.7 per cent in January this year. Similarly, an overwhelming 66 per cent of the respondents think that the Union government has been trying to control content on social media. Of them, while a substantial 40.7 per cent see that control as being exercised to a great extent, 25.2 per cent believe this is happening to ‘some’ extent.

On the environment front, too, there is room for improvement. While 18.8 per cent feel what the Centre is doing to achieve its climate goals is sufficient, another 39.5 per cent think it is ‘somewhat’ sufficient. Both these figures have registered a drop of 2.9and 5.9 percentage points, respectively, since January 2023. Those who think it is completely insufficient account for almost a quarter of the total respondents (23.6 per cent) this time, indicating that the country still has some way to go in addressing environmental concerns.

Overall, the MOTN poll’s findings, which shine an equal light on India’s recent achievements as well as its setbacks, point to the state of flux the country is in today. And this seems to have reshaped the happiness quotient of the respondents too. A majority of them still consider themselves happy, but that share has dipped from 75 per cent in January last year to 63.2 per cent this time. As India completes 75 years of its independence, policymakers would do well to address the myriad factors that have led to this decline in happiness if they really wish to set the country on a path of inclusive, sustainable and all-round growth.

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