Opinion: US elections 2024 - Decoding the first Republican presidential debate

Donald Trump wasn’t on stage but he had the remote control firmly in hand as presidential aspirants, stuck way behind him in the polls, debated issues, sparred and cut each other down but did not dare to take on the former president.

Who won the debate? Well, Trump clearly did. In absentia. Amongst the runners-up, both Indian American candidates -- Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy -- grabbed attention for different reasons. As they went for each other, Haley landed some solid punches, showing her foreign policy chops. She shut down Ramaswamy with the night’s punchiest line: “You have no policy experience and it shows,” referring to his unconventional positions on the Ukraine war and on Taiwan.

If Haley upped her “likes” and gained more visibility, Ramaswamy grabbed the most attention and a solid chunk of the time, ignoring the warning bells and the moderators. Establishment commentators found him “irritating,” “preening” and a Trump “sycophant.” But his aim was to be noticed in the first major nationally televised event and he succeeded in his project. He didn’t wilt under withering attacks nor miss a beat in his programmed answers. He later flaunted the attacks by others as a “badge of honour” he will wear going forward.

Fight for second place

The first Republican debate of the 2024 election was essentially a fight for the second place since the elephant “not in the room,” i.e., the former president, took the top spot ages ago. Trump has stuck to his lead with super glue, and he will most likely be the Republican nominee.

No, the four indictments spanning 91 criminal charges have not dented Trump’s lead which stands at 52 per cent, according to the latest polling averages by FiveThirtyEight. A distant second is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 15 per cent, who was once seen as a credible and desirable alternative to Trump. But the polling gap between Trump and the rest is so wide, that most candidates are petrified to poke the elephant lest they be crushed into oblivion.

That, in short, is the state of play. The Republican Party remains firmly in Trump’s grip with a support base so loyal and fervent, candidates are afraid to touch the MAGA hive or the Make America Great Again fan base. Those who tried -- as two candidates did during the debate -- were booed. With no imminent fear of being upstaged, Trump is free to plan his campaign between court hearings and legal manoeuvres.

No surprise that Trump decided to stay away from the debate, satisfied with the commanding lead he enjoys. Just to rub it into the party apparatchiks how little he cares for tradition and rules, he released an interview on X (formerly Twitter) with Tucker Carlson -- the hugely controversial Fox News host who was fired by the network -- at precisely the time Fox News hosted the primary debate. The in-your-face “counter programming” had got more than 200 million views by Thursday afternoon.

Ramaswamy on the rampage

Interestingly, the most fervent Trump supporter and defender on stage in Milwaukee was Ramaswamy. He went so far as to call Trump the “best president of the 21st century” and promised to “pardon” him on Day 1 of the Ramaswamy presidency. Trump promptly declared him the debate winner and thanked him in a post on Truth Social. Could Ramaswamy get the VP job since he is clearly auditioning as a young (38 years), smart-talking, business-savvy person of colour who can “balance” the ticket?

Snigger and roll your eyes all you will but the biotech entrepreneur is getting traction in Iowa, the Vatican of American politics where candidates go for blessings. Ramaswamy is a political newbie -- he has no previous political experience -- but with none of the humility of a newcomer. Younger voters find him “annoying” mainly for the way he talks -- like a button has been pressed on a machine. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey and one of the eight contenders on stage, compared him to “ChatGPT” during the debate.

Some of Ramaswamy’s positions are extreme by traditional Republican standards but they strike a chord with Trump voters he has assiduously courted. Here’s proof: he opposes affirmative action, wants to demolish the administrative state, seal the border shut and end the culture of “woke-ness” while bringing “faith and God” front and centre. He wants to end US military support for Ukraine and break the China-Russia alliance. Climate change is a “hoax” for him and he wants the US to pursue all manner of drilling, fracking and use of nuclear energy.

Nikki Haley's strategy

Haley, by contrast and in a shrewd move, tried to project herself as a candidate for a general election doing away with the extremist Republican positions candidates feel they must adopt during the primaries to appease the hardcore party base. While staying close to the Republican core, she dared to call out her own party, including Trump, for big government spending. “Donald Trump added $8 trillion to our debt,” she said in a brave statement, sending small shock waves. It was time to have an “accountant” in the White House, she added. As a young woman, Haley did accounts for her mother’s small business.

On the most contentious and emotive issue of abortion, Haley -- the only woman on stage -- refused to get behind the idea of a “national ban” and deflected by saying the Republicans will never get the 60 Senate votes required to pass it. While she is strongly “pro-life,” she does not support jailing or penalising women who go for an abortion -- a careful position aimed at women voters across both parties who are not in thrall of severe restrictions that all the male candidates have advocated. Haley played as a grown-up on other issues as well, including education. How donors and media react will determine how far she goes in the race.

How the others performed

Ron DeSantis, once seen as a potential frontrunner and “Trump minus the drama,” didn’t have a stellar night and seemed to fade into the background. His poll numbers are stuck in the mid-teens and his donors are worried as his campaign flounders. That the others didn’t bother to go after him during the debate as expected was another sign DeSantis’ campaign is in decline. Despite pandering to the far right (he would allow border guards to fire on illegal immigrants), he couldn’t create a breakout or a viral moment. Once overhyped, he underperformed.

On the other hand, former vice-president Mike Pence had a surprisingly good night taking command more than once, first to defend his decision to certify the 2020 election despite tremendous pressure from Trump and getting other candidates to endorse his conduct and then to attack Ramaswamy for being a “rookie” in politics. “He was probably in grade school on 9/11, and I was on Capitol Hill,” he said about the Indian American before the debate and kept hammering on the age difference.

But it was a brief show of spine because Pence along with five others raised his hand when the candidates were asked if they would support Trump as the 2024 Republican nominee even if he were convicted. Only two showed real spine -- Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas -- but they are on the fringes with 3.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent support.

The only black candidate -- Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina -- played it safe, stayed pleasant, non-controversial and decent per his reputation. He weaved in his life story -- a single mom working 16 hours a day to put food on the table so Scott could realise his American dream. He declared the dream alive, well and healthy. He too is a potential VP candidate.

At the other end, Trump painted a dark picture, repeating his allegations of a stolen election and predicting political violence during the interview with Carlson on X. Carlson goaded him with leading questions about being targeted for assassination now that he has been indicted. “They are trying to put you in prison for the rest of your life, that’s not working. So don’t they have to kill you now?" he asked in a bizarre line of questioning.

Trump did not answer but did say this: “There’s a level of passion that I have never seen. There’s a level of hatred that I have never seen. And that’s probably a bad combination,” he told Carlson.

Make of that what you will but that is where the political contestation is in the world’s most powerful democracy.

(Seema Sirohi is a senior journalist based out of Washington DC. She writes on foreign policy and has covered India-US relations for nearly three decades.)

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)