Opinion: Johannesburg moment - Another BRICS in the wall or new beginnings?
BRICS -- the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- is not only internally divided over the issue of membership expansion but two of its members are locked in dangerous disputes with the United States and its allies.
As leaders of BRICS countries gather in Johannesburg this week, the question is whether the group has become another playground for big power contestation instead of delivering concrete benefits to developing countries by making the international system fairer.
BRICS -- the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- is not only internally divided over the issue of membership expansion but two of its members are locked in dangerous disputes with the United States and its allies.
Russia’s war on Ukraine and China’s aggressive military moves will hang heavy over the summit. So much so, Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t and won’t attend the August 22-24 summit because of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He will send his foreign minister instead.
The idea that once united BRICS countries -- changing the existing Western-led order into a more equitable system -- no longer exists except in the broadest sense. Geopolitics has shifted dramatically, views have evolved and calculations have changed. India has inched closer to the West as Chinese intentions of dominance have become ever clearer. China has changed the status quo on the Sino-Indian border, making summitry difficult.
Russia and China, meanwhile, are locked in a “no limits” partnership, posing a giant question mark over the India-Russia friendship. Opinions on the Ukraine war are markedly different, with Brazil voting to condemn Russia’s aggression at one end of the spectrum and China at the other, with India and South Africa bringing up the middle. However, none of the BRICS members supports sanctions against Russia.
Who will shape the BRICS agenda?
It's against this complex environment that South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa will play host to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the 15th BRICS summit. Who will be a better “influencer” in shaping the agenda or voicing concerns of the Global South while keeping a fine balance?
Together, the BRICS countries represent 41 per cent of the world’s population, 16 per cent of the world’s trade and a quarter of the world’s GDP, amounting to $26 trillion, with China responsible for the lion’s share. In terms of purchasing power parity, the combined GDP of BRICS has surpassed that of the G-7, the group of advanced countries.
China is aggressively pushing to expand BRICS membership and increase its influence while diluting India’s as the champion of the developing world. Xi is going all out to woo African countries. He will co-host a China-Africa dialogue with Ramaphosa on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, something Chinese diplomats have been highlighting on social media. BRICS “expansion” will be a running theme at the side summit.
Russia -- China’s reliable partner in geopolitical plays -- is behind the idea of more members, if for no other reason than to dull the sense of isolation. BRICS is a useful platform for Russia to present its version of the war and more members mean more influence and more outreach.
Last heard, 22 countries, including all major countries of the Global South, have formally asked to join the group, while an equal number have informally expressed interest. Argentina, Indonesia, Iran, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, United Arab Emirates and Egypt, among others, want to be another brick in the wall, as it were.
Relevance, fear around BRICS; India's stance
Clearly, BRICS has become the club countries want to enter, thanks to hyperactive diplomacy by China and increasing disillusionment with Western powers to make systemic changes. Second and third tier effects of the Ukraine war also helped galvanise opinion against the West, with many countries of the Global South seeking a larger voice and a different platform.
But the fear is that China will use an expanded BRICS to further its global agenda, sharpen the North-South divide and exacerbate matters while trying to make BRICS an explicit anti-US platform. That clearly would not be in India’s interest. Both sides will manoeuvre for advantage in the coming days and months.
While India has not explicitly rejected the idea of expansion, it says “criteria” for membership should be settled first before opening the door. The operating principle of BRICS is consensus and with more members it would be harder to get consensus, especially on thorny issues. Brazil itself is split on expansion -- President Lula is in favour but the foreign ministry is against enlarging BRICS, making for an interesting dichotomy.
New BRICS currency will change world order
Another major issue on the summit agenda is how to increase trade in local currencies and lessen dependence on the US dollar. While all talk of a new BRICS currency was scotched by India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar last month, it’s a fact that many countries find the idea of an alternative global currency attractive because the US dollar has been weaponised in the form of sanctions and trade wars.
Experts say while the greenback is not in any imminent danger of losing its dominance as the world’s main currency, any significant expansion of BRICS membership could hasten the creation of new commercial and financial systems without the dollar.
Russia and China have always been vocal about “de-dollarisation,” and they have lately been joined by Brazil. Lula has said he gets nightmares about trading in US dollars. He has complained about the dominance of the dollar in almost every country of the Global South he has visited, making it a running theme of his tenure. Brazil recently signed a currency swap deal with China.
Given the differences, divergences and rivalries among BRICS members and the complexities of the global environment where one’s enemy is another’s best friend, the summit communique is more likely to touch the major themes broadly while staying away from specifics.
(Seema Sirohi is a senior journalist based out of Washington DC. She writes on foreign policy and has covered India-US relations for nearly three decades.)
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)
