Opinion: 'One Nation, One Election' bill in Parliament? Here's what it means

A 'One Nation, One Election' bill, Uniform Civil Code, a women’s reservation bill, population control legislation, or a universal income scheme — what will feature in the special Parliament session convening between September 18 and 22? The suspense will likely end only when Speaker Om Birla convenes a meeting of the Business Advisory Panel, a 15-member group that includes members of the Opposition, where agenda papers are required to be circulated before the proposed session.

A full-majority government is within its rights to advance Lok Sabha polls. It does not require any parliamentary sanction to dissolve the 17th Lok Sabha prematurely. The Special Parliamentary session, therefore, has to have some decorative or substantive legislative business, which needs about the next six months to fructify or bring electoral dividends. In such a scenario, the Uniform Civil Code or a universal income scheme would be high on optics. Meanwhile, the Women's Reservation Bill, population control legislation, and “One Nation, One Election” would come with the flip side and legal challenges.

However, going by the media tizzy and sources-based speculation, simultaneous Assembly polls in as many as 12 states alongside the general elections seems high on the probability list. The states that have elections scheduled six months before or after May 2024 are Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand.

Politically and legally, how the Narendra Modi-led government can force states like Bengal, Punjab, Karnataka, or Delhi to go for snap polls is beyond reason. More importantly, would simultaneous polls actually provide a fillip to Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party when the Assembly polls outcomes of the last Delhi Odisha elections, and the voting patterns of 2018 Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh have shown a lot of diversity.

BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, are strong votaries of simultaneous Lok Sabha and state Assembly polls. In addition, several BJP chief ministers such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Yogi Adityanath are also in favour of this. In 2018, Uttar Pradesh's then-health minister Sidharth Nath Singh submitted a 23-page report favouring simultaneous polls. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, Chouhan accepted a report submitted by a panel of “experts” appointed by him that suggested the clubbing of Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls.

In February 2018, BJP chief ministers and deputy chief ministers from 19 states met in the New Delhi party headquarters to discuss the possibility of simultaneous polls. One view that emerged was that till the time holding simultaneous elections from panchayats to Parliament was not feasible, the possibility of holding state polls in many states along with the general elections should still be explored.

Notably, per constitutional provisions, an elected government enjoying a majority in the House can advance polls by six months. However, there are no concessions for deferring polls. For instance, if state polls are not concluded by December 8, 2023, Madhya Pradesh will have to come under a spell of President’s Rule where the governor will have powers to run the day-to-day functioning of the state.

Many leaders of the Opposition, currently in Mumbai, view the possibility of simultaneous polls as a "kite flying" exercise. Some Opposition leaders say they would move the Supreme Court swiftly if “unconstitutional" measures like imposition of President’s Rule were introduced in order to have simultaneous polls.

They also feel that the INDIA alliance and its united face may be starting to rattle the Modi regime. A special Parliament session, they argue, is a tacit admission that Modi’s reported economic, diplomatic, and political successes are not enough to ensure victory in 2024.

On a political level, there are many BJP leaders in Madhya Pradesh including Chief Minister Chouhan who are keen on simultaneous polls. In their rationale, the Modi campaign would help them tide over anti-incumbency sentiments in the state. On the flip side, the governor's rule would put Chouhan in an awkward position.