Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections: A dance of margins and mandates

Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, one of the more important events is the Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh scheduled for later this year. To get a clear idea of what to expect in the polls, India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit analysed the state assembly's election data from 1962 to 2018. The data revealed intriguing patterns in the victory margins over the years. Tight races highlighted the power of grassroots efforts, while big wins stressed guarding strongholds and targeting swing areas.

• Tight races: 24 per cent of seats had margins less than five per cent. A whisker decides every fourth seat
• Clear wins: Only one in eight seats saw more than 30 per cent victories, signalling strongholds
• Middle ground: One in three seats fell between the 5-15 per cent margin; competitive but clear leads

Why it matters

Nearly a quarter of the electoral battles were nail-biters, with candidates edging out their rivals by a margin of less than five per cent. Imagine the suspense on the counting day!

This implies that for roughly every four seats decided, one was by the slimmest of majorities. These tight races highlight the value of every vote and demonstrate the state's vibrant and dynamic political landscape. As Madhya Pradesh preps for another electoral face-off by the end of this year, past patterns hint at the state's political pulse. The outcome could be a bellwether for national politics.

In numbers

As political analysts often remind us, change is the only constant in politics. And as the sands of time shift, so do the margins of victory. The electoral landscape of Madhya Pradesh has witnessed tectonic shifts over the past six decades. Let’s take a look:

The Congress era (1962-1985): The Indian National Congress held significant sway over Madhya Pradesh during the initial decades. Data reveals that in 1962, 1967, and 1972, the party secured a broad range of victories, from razor-thin margins to substantial leads. The dominance was evident in the deep blue cells for these years, indicating many seats won with varied victory margins.

Often emerging as the dominant force with a significant majority, the party became synonymous with governance in the state. However, by the 1980s, the hues started to fade, signalling a decline in the party's absolute dominance.

The year 1967 saw the rise of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, which would later evolve into the modern-day Bharatiya Janata Party. Although the Congress maintained its stronghold for another decade, the seeds of an alternative political force were sown.

The emergence of BJP (1980 onwards): By 1977, political tides began turning. The Janata Party took centre stage, reflecting a national sentiment against the Congress, which had just imposed and lifted a state of emergency in the country. However, this change was short-lived. By 1980, the Congress was back in power.

The BJP made its presence felt in the 1980s. As we move through the years in the heatmap, saffron intensifies, especially in the 1990s and 2000s. Notably, the party seemed to have a knack for securing victories with larger margins, as seen by the concentration of warmer colours in the "20 to 30 per cent" and "30 per cent and above" rows. By 1990, they had not just arrived but dominated, winning 220 seats out of 320 seats and signalling a new era in the state's politics. Before the separation of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh had 320 assembly seats.

The new millennium saw the Congress and BJP locked in fierce battles. Since 2003, the Congress faced challenges in Madhya Pradesh, losing thrice — in 2003, the BJP won big with 173 seats; Congress got only 38.

Nail-biting 2018: By 2018, Congress had improved to 114 seats but still fell short of a majority. They formed a coalition to govern. The BJP, however, wasn't far behind with 109 seats. While the BJP won a substantial number of seats, many of them fell in the "less than five per cent" margin range.

The Congress, on the other hand, had a broader spectrum of victory margins. The numbers annotated in the heatmap for this year highlight the neck-to-neck competition, making 2018 one of the most closely contested elections in recent history. In 2020, a shift by 28 Congress loyalists led to the BJP returning to power. Later that year, the BJP won 19 out of 28 by-polls. So, apart from a 15-month break, the BJP has led since 2003.

BJP vs Congress

The tale of these two political titans in Madhya Pradesh is one of oscillating fortunes. While the Congress was the early bird, enjoying dominance in the initial decades, the BJP's meteoric rise in the late 20th century rewrote the script. The 21st century has been a tightrope walk, with both parties experiencing highs and lows.

The BJP's strength in the 2003 and 2013 elections was palpable, but the Congress's resurgence in 2018 signals a state willing to change its mind. With close margins and high stakes, the upcoming elections could be anyone's game.

While both parties have seen their share of nail-biting finishes, the BJP appears to have more seats with decisive victory margins, especially in the 10 to 15 per cent and five to 10 per cent brackets. On the other hand, the Congress has a slight edge in the most closely contested seats (less than a five per cent margin).

As Madhya Pradesh prepares for its next elections, these historical patterns could provide valuable insights into the regions where each party needs to focus and the nature of their campaigns.

The big picture

Victory margins are more than statistics; they offer a pulse check on voter sentiment. Close contests suggest a divided electorate, while decisive victories indicate a yearning for change or continuity. Over the past few decades, Assembly elections in this vast state have mirrored the ebb and flow of India's larger political currents. With elections looming, will history repeat, or will Madhya Pradesh chart a new political course? The margins and mandates await.