INDIA Vs NDA: Line-up promises exciting poll battle, a small swing could be decider

The upcoming battle for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is being viewed with much anticipation as the lines are drawn between the two major blocks – the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the newly formed Opposition grouping, the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). After the INDIA alliance of 26 parties was formed last month in Bengaluru, the electoral contest has become interesting, at least in terms of the arithmetic.

The total combined vote share of the INDIA alliance partners is 38 per cent, just 7 per cent less than the incumbent NDA, an alliance of 38 parties led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the simple arithmetic suggests that a determined and combined push from the Opposition (INDIA) would make the 2024 mega poll battle a close contest, a deep dive into the data, however, suggest that this is not going to be an easy task.

PERFORMANCE OF INDIA AND NDA IN LAST THREE LOK SABHA POLLS

In the last Lok Sabha election of 2019, the ruling NDA received 45 per cent of the votes and won 341 seats. In 2014, the NDA vote share was 39 per cent and it had won 353 seats, which was the highest for this alliance or for any alliance or party after the 1984 Lok Sabha election. This was also the election that heralded the Modi era, and the NDA alliance partner AIADMK did quite well in this poll. Surprisingly, the same AIADMK collapsed in the 2019 polls. In 2009, the NDA had received just 27 percent votes and won 148 seats.

At the same time, the 2009 Lok Sabha election can be called the golden period for the INDIA alliance partners, who together won 347 seats, with 40 per cent votes share. However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, though the INDIA coalition vote share increased to 42 per cent, they could manage only 161 seats. This was mainly due to the triangular nature of the contest among BJP, Congress and the regional parties. The last Lok Sabha election held in 2019 was even worse for the parties under the INDIA grouping, which saw its vote share drop to 38 per cent, resulting in just 158 seats.

At 7 per cent, the gap in aggregate vote share of both these alliances may not seem much, but the dominance of NDA in the last two Lok Sabha polls only suggests the dominance of the BJP or the dominance of the Modi factor. Among the NDA partners, the leading party BJP has 37 per cent of the votes. The BJP’s own vote share is almost equal to the total vote share of the INDIA alliance and the party’s total seats almost double of the Opposition block.

BJP AND CONGRESS SINCE 1991

The BJP’s dominance can be explained in terms of the decline of the Congress. Baring the 1991 Lok Sabha election, the Congress never touched the 30 per cent vote share mark in the last three decades. The party received 36 per cent votes in the 1991 Lok Sabha election. The year also saw the emergence of the second major party in the Indian electoral system. The BJP in 1991 Lok Sabha polls received 20 per cent vote share. It is important to note that after the Congress and the Janta Party, the BJP was the only other party to get 20 per cent votes in a national election.

Also, the 1991 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls have a significant coincidence – in 1991, the BJP received 20 per cent votes and the Congress got 36 per cent votes, while in the 2019 Lok Sabha election the tables had turned completely. In 2019, the BJP received 37 per cent of the votes, while the Congress managed 20 per cent of the votes.

The chart below (See GFX 2) illustrates another significant point. In the 1998 Lok Sabha election, when the Atal Behari Vajpayee-led NDA government survived 13 months, both the BJP and the Congress received an equal vote share of 26 per cent.

The national vote share figures since 1991 suggest that the BJP’s gain is inversely proportional to the Congress’ loss. However, the last two Lok Sabha elections suggest that the BJP has thrashed the Congress massively. In the 2014 Lok Sabha, there were 189 seats where the BJP and the Congress were in a direct contest, and the BJP won 166 of those seats with an impressive 88 per cent strike rate. In the same election, the BJP’s strike rate against the non-Congress parties was only 47 per cent.

Five years later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP has increased its strike against both Congress and non-Congress parties. However, there is still a major difference. While the BJP’s strike rate against the Congress was 92 per cent, against the non-Congress parties, its strike rate was 52 per cent. This was due to the saffron party’s major gains in West Bengal against Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC).

CONGRESS: A WEAK LINK OR ONLY HOPE FOR INDIA ALLIANCE?

The answer to this question can be gleaned from several data points, which suggest that the Congress is a weak link against the BJP and the NDA. Among the INDIA alliance, the Congress leads the pack with 20 per cent vote share and 52 Lok Sabha seats nationally. The vote-to-seat conversion of the Congress has become weaker as the party is spread across the country. Unlike the concentrated strongholds of regional parties, the Congress’ electoral base is spread in many states. And those states where it is in a head-to-head contest with the BJP, it is important for the Congress to gain significant vote share. Even a few percentage points increase in the Congress’s votes would inversely damage the BJP’s numbers because as there are nearly 200 seats where both are fighting directly with each other.

In states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, where the Congress is a minor player, any gains in the party’s votes will give a boost to the INDIA alliance. Similarly, in Punjab, the addition of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the India alliance, could give them a significant edge over their main opponent NDA.

What is significant to note here is that, as the numbers stand, the NDA has taken the formidable pole position. Yet, a swing of just a few percentage points could make the battle more interesting if the INDIA alliance fights unitedly. And to do that, the INDIA alliance needs not only better coordination among its partners, it also has to build a convincing narrative against the NDA and establish good chemistry with the voters.

(Ashish Ranjan is a political analyst and co-founder of Datalok.in)