European wildfire, deadly heatwaves were driven by climate change

Europe is once again grappling with scorching temperatures this summer, as wildfires rage from the Mediterranean to Spain.

The escalating intensity and frequency of these heatwaves are driven by climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Human activities have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, raising the planet's temperature by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. This warmer baseline has amplified the severity of extreme heat events.

"Every heatwave being experienced today is hotter and more frequent due to climate change," says Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

However, other factors also contribute to the occurrence of heatwaves. In Europe, atmospheric circulation plays a significant role. To determine the exact impact of climate change on specific heatwaves, scientists conduct "attribution studies".

These studies involve simulating the modern climate hundreds of times and comparing it to simulations of a climate without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.

For instance, World Weather Attribution scientists found that a record-breaking heatwave in western Europe in June 2019 was 100 times more likely to occur now than if humans had not altered the climate.

Despite the current situation, heatwaves are predicted to worsen. The global average temperature is already driving extreme heat events, with heat extremes that would have occurred once every decade now happening three times more frequently.

Unless humans cease adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, heatwaves will continue to escalate.

Climate change also exacerbates wildfires by creating hot and dry conditions that enable fires to spread faster, burn longer, and rage more intensely. In the Mediterranean, this has resulted in an earlier fire season that burns more land. For example, fires on the island of Rhodes forced the evacuation of around 20,000 people as the blaze reached resorts and coastal villages.

While climate change is a significant factor in wildfires, forest management and ignition sources also play a crucial role. Over 90% of fires in Europe are ignited by human activities, such as arson, disposable barbecues, electricity lines, or littered glass.

However, scientists agree that without drastic cuts to greenhouse gases, heatwaves, wildfires, flooding, and drought will significantly worsen.

"When people look back on the current fire season in one or two decades, it will probably seem mild by comparison," warns Victor Resco de Dios, professor of forest engineering at Spain's Lleida University.